Abstract

UAE is one of the safest countries to live in, but that does not indicate that the country does not witness crimes, During the COVID-19 pandemic, the country saw an increase in cyber and digital crimes. Apart from cybercrime, there are other types of crimes, such as street crimes and violent crimes. Data analytics aids Dubai Police to predict crimes. Criminal investigation is one of the fields that is very interesting and is taught in colleges and academies. Data analytics opens the door for studying the details of each crime. Data mining tools consist of a variety of techniques that can help solve a problem or indicate a cause or an effect of something. Data analysts use data mining tools through a lot of software that allow the user to analyze data easily and fluently. SAS (statistical analysis system) is one of the reputable software that is used especially for visualizing and analyzing data. In this capstone, we will use SAS since it is a software that is accredited from Dubai Police and we use it already in our workplace. Prediction techniques supports to interpret and facilitate Dubai Police to develop strategies to reduce the crime rate. Hence, it allows UAE to sustain its position as the “safest” country. The capstone idea will actually help us develop what we do at work and stop or reduce crime which is one of the main pillars in Dubai Police. The crime related data will be collected from CID in Dubai police. Link analysis and predictive analysis will be performed in this project to forecast any crime. We will build a predictive model using SAS to predict crime. This proposed project will help to identify the trends of historical crime data. Project timeline has been provided in this writing to have a better outline. The first step is to collect the data from the source which is in our case, the criminal investigation department in Dubai Police. Meeting with the department; they have agreed on giving us datasets of specific crimes that Dubai Police finds critical and needs further analysis from five years. Thus, the data that we will be analyzing will be from the years 2017 to the year 2021. After collecting the data ; the processing took place which is the cleaning part of the data. Since the data is in Arabic and it is old as mentioned earlier that the data of the past five years are collected; there are some missing fields, some inconsistencies and some redundant data. After cleaning the dataset which took 70% of the time working on this project. Now the dataset is ready and can be analyzed in SAS. Importing the dataset through SAS was the first step. Then, we started analyzing the criminals first as we wanted to build a portfolio of the criminals and observe of any patterns found. The highest nationality of the criminals was India. We tried to see if there are higher nationalities in certain years, but in all five years the analysis showed that India was the number one nationality in criminals. Then we wanted to observe the criminals’ education level; the highest education level was unemployed meaning they do not have any degree that supports them. The education level

part was very interesting because we found out that even though university degrees did not come first in the highest education level. however there is a sample of the criminals that hold very high level degrees such as PhDs and Masters degrees and this shows us that the stereotype of how uneducated people are bad or are the only people that commit crimes should be disregarded. Next , we analyzed the criminals’ age group and the outcome was that 30 – 45 age groups are the ones that commit crimes the most in Dubai. Finally, we have analyzed the criminals’ gender to see which gender commits most crimes in Dubai and from our analysis; the outcome showed that men are the most that commit crimes in Dubai. After analyzing the criminals’ profiles ; we have moved on to analyzing the crimes in the past five years. The type of crime was the first thing we wanted to analyze to observe what is the most crime committed in Dubai in the last five years. Fraud was the most crime committed in Dubai and this was not a huge shock to us since Dubai is considered a business city and it attracts some people to do their business in it. Dubai has always been interested in building the city financially in the best , legal way possible, however there will always be people that see it as a city to commit fraud in since it has a large population and has many tourists visiting the city. Next, we analyzed the crime replotting per year. 2019 has scored the highest in crime reporting in Dubai; right before the pandemic. We analyzed the police stations that had the most reporting in the past five years in order to observe the locations that are considered crime appealing to criminals. This analysis is very important since every area has a police station assigned to it and the outcome of this analysis was that Bur Dubai police station had the highest number of incidents in the last five years. Lastly, we wanted to analyze what time was the crime committed and the result was that most crimes have been committed in the morning between 9AM and 11AM and that was very shocking and interesting to us because it is know globally that most crimes are committed at night in the dark where no one can see the criminal , but this is due to the type of crime as well , and as we have observed that fraud is the most committed crime, then the morning is the best time to commit this crime since people are awake and willing to do business with other people whether it was online or offline. Finally, the purpose of this whole project is to forecast the crime rates; thus, we built a forecasting model in SAS and it showed us that in the upcoming years, the crime rates in Dubai will decrease dramatically based on the pattern of crimes in the historical data. This is a positive result; however this does not mean that Dubai Police should neglect the surveillance and monitoring of the city due to this forecasting as it is not always accurate.

Publication Date

5-10-2022

Document Type

Master's Project

Student Type

Graduate

Degree Name

Professional Studies (MS)

Department, Program, or Center

Graduate Programs & Research (Dubai)

Advisor

Sanjay Modak

Advisor/Committee Member

Boutheina Tlili

Campus

RIT Dubai

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