Abstract

The population of Easter Island grew steadily for some time and then suddenly decreased dramatically; humans almost disappeared from the island. This is not the sort of behavior predicted by the usual logistic differential equation model of an isolated population or by the predator-prey model for a population using resources. We present a mathematical model that predicts this type of behavior when growth rate of the resources, such as food and trees, is less than the rate at which resources are harvested. Our model is expressed mathematically as a system of two first-order differential equations, both of which are generalized logistic equations. Numerical solution of the equations, using realistic parameters, predicts values very close to archeological observations of Easter Island. We analyze the model by using a coordinate transformation to blow up a singularity at the origin. Our analysis reveals surprisingly rich dynamics including a degenerate Hopf bifurcation.

Publication Date

2005

Comments

"Booming and crashing populations and Easter Island," Copyright 2005 The Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics: http://www.siam.org/ ISSN:0036-1399 Note: imported from RIT’s Digital Media Library running on DSpace to RIT Scholar Works in February 2014.

Document Type

Article

Department, Program, or Center

School of Mathematical Sciences (COS)

Campus

RIT – Main Campus

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